USDA's February 2023 report forecasts a global soybean outlook for 2022/23 including lower production, crushing and ending stocks.
Global soybean production is estimated to fall by 5 million tons to 383 million tons due to lower crops in Argentina and Ukraine. Argentina's crop fell 4.5 million tons to 41 million tons due to lower acreage and dry weather conditions affecting yields. Ukraine's crop decreased by 0.4 million tons due to lower reported harvest area.
Global soybean exports were almost unchanged, with lower Argentina exports being offset by higher exports from Paraguay and Brazil. Soybean imports increased in Argentina while decreasing in the EU. Pakistan's imports fell due to restrictions on licensing the import of genetically modified soybeans.
Global soybean crushing is estimated to decrease by 3.4 million tonnes mainly due to lower grinding volumes for China, Pakistan and Argentina. China's soybean crushing is now falling more slowly than expected. Pakistan's crushing volume decreased due to lower available supply. The decline in Argentina's crushing volume resulted in lower shipments of soybean meal and soybean oil.
Global soybean ending stocks fell by 1.5 million tons to 102 million tons, with South American stocks lower, while China's stocks were higher.
For the US, the USDA forecasts lower soybean crushing and higher ending stocks. Soybean crushing production for 2022/23 is estimated at 2.23 billion bushels, down 15 million bushels from last month due to less domestic soybean meal and higher soybean meal extraction rate. With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 225 million bushels, up 15 million bushels.
The U.S. seasonally average soybean price in 2022/23 is forecast at $14.3/bushel, up 10 cents from the previous month. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $450/short ton, up $25/short.
In Argentina, Argentina's Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) slashed its soybean harvest estimate for the 2022/2023 crop to 34.5 million tonnes from 37 million tonnes previously, marking an output cereals is the lowest in 14 years due to a drought that started in mid-2022.
Demand for soybeans in China has rebounded, but the country is looking to ramp up production of soybeans and cooking oil to continue being more self-sufficient in its staple food supplies.
China is trying to reduce its reliance on soybean imports as the COVID19 pandemic, trade tensions and climate catastrophe raise concerns for the country's 1.4 billion people.

In its annual rural policy blueprint, known as "document number one," the State Council, China's cabinet, reiterated the recently announced goal of increasing grain production capacity. to 50 million tons, from the current production level of more than 650 million tons. China will seek to improve corn yields, further support wheat farmers and "strongly" promote production of rapeseed, as well as lesser-known oilseed crops such as camellia. . China will also accelerate the commercialization of biotech corn and soybeans.
China will fully implement a campaign to reduce soybean meal intake in animal feed, another move aimed at reducing dependence on soybean imports. At the same time, the country has also drawn up plans to protect the land and save water and strengthen control over the use of arable land. In addition, there is also a call for further development of indoor farms, with plans to explore the construction of facilities in Gobi and other deserts.
Soybean prices could rise on forecasts of lower production in Argentina and Ukraine and lower ending stocks.
Source: VITIC/USDA/Reuters/Spglobal
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